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Looks like everybody from CIA and Biden to random bloggers called this, down to 2/22/22 date. I misjudged importance and scale of what they were predicting so didn’t pay enough attention to believe/disbelieve till almost the last day, then misjudged how big it would get 🤔
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To be right or wrong, you have to first decide a thing is worth paying attention to at all. I didn’t think this was till the 21st. If I’d paid attention in mid-January I’d have almost certainly made a few investment decisions differently.
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Why is Putin doing this, and why now? Monocausal simplistic answers only. No “it’s complex” or “it’s overdetermined.”
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