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CNN guy confidently asserting that if NATO wanted to, it could easily establish air supremacy and enforce a no-fly zone 🤔 I don’t think it’s that easy here, plus there’s nukes in the picture, and the no-fly based “small wars” approach of Bosnia seems miscalibrated here.
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There’s a thesis that’s never been tested at work here — that post-Soviet Russia is an asymmetrically weaker opponent, especially in the higher-tech theaters, not an equally matched one. It might very well be true.
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Despite the Russian rhetoric of a weak, comfort-loving west (a tediously old authoritarian line about democracies that’s repeatedly proved false), the west has been continuously waging high-tech foreign wars since the fall of the Soviet Union in a way Russia hasn’t been.
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Ah a thread about it
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There's a powerful lobby pushing for a "no-fly zone" over Ukraine. If Biden listens to them, he will start a shooting war with Russia. This is not a drill. It's the closest we've been to World War 3 since the Cuban Missile Crisis. 🧵
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I think the thing to keep in mind is that since WW2, nukes haven’t been a weapon of the strong, but of the weak. It’s the weaker party that has the strongest temptation to deploy nukes.
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Absolutely cannot enforce a no-fly zone without escalating to war. Ukraine borders russia, so NATO would have to destroy anti-aircraft batteries hundreds of miles inside Russia.
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It has been since 1945. The economy is the size of Texas's. Their force doctrine is not suited to contemporary warfare and they still rely on conscripts. The Cold War is really a study in the power of disinformation & overestimating your opponent. Not controversial to experts