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CNN guy confidently asserting that if NATO wanted to, it could easily establish air supremacy and enforce a no-fly zone 🤔 I don’t think it’s that easy here, plus there’s nukes in the picture, and the no-fly based “small wars” approach of Bosnia seems miscalibrated here.
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There’s a thesis that’s never been tested at work here — that post-Soviet Russia is an asymmetrically weaker opponent, especially in the higher-tech theaters, not an equally matched one. It might very well be true.
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Despite the Russian rhetoric of a weak, comfort-loving west (a tediously old authoritarian line about democracies that’s repeatedly proved false), the west has been continuously waging high-tech foreign wars since the fall of the Soviet Union in a way Russia hasn’t been.
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Ah a thread about it
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There's a powerful lobby pushing for a "no-fly zone" over Ukraine. If Biden listens to them, he will start a shooting war with Russia. This is not a drill. It's the closest we've been to World War 3 since the Cuban Missile Crisis. 🧵
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I think the thing to keep in mind is that since WW2, nukes haven’t been a weapon of the strong, but of the weak. It’s the weaker party that has the strongest temptation to deploy nukes.
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Engaging the aggressor outside their borders with equal conventional force is the only option. If you truly believe that aggressor would use nukes in that scenario, then first strike is the only option but that would be MAD
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