Conversation

Replying to
I hope all the people arguing coronaviruses mutate less etc are right. But sadly the risk of Scenario Z is broader — limits of politics and economics in a world that is vastly more high-tech than the minds of its median inhabitants, facing a microbial environment ratchet.
2
87
Don’t forget, human civilization has spent 6000 years in a infectious-disease-ravaged state and only 60 in an infectious-disease-dominating state. 1% of history. No fundamental reason to believe the state change is an irreversible level-up with backsliding being impossible.
5
168
Again, not being alarmist. This is still a <10% scenario for me. But I’m concerned people who know better aren’t openly worrying enough about the new mutations, taking news from Manaus seriously, etc. This thing is close to escaping control just as we’re congratulating ourselves.
3
113
In a way, Trumpist death cult has already bought into Scenario Z. They seem to have decided this is a desirable cull of weakness out of the species along the way to their restoration of a glorious pre-modern condition of Real Men™ wielding guns, germs and steel for glory of god.
13
148
Several people are pointing out that the correlation between density and disease management is not straightforward. Taiwan and SF have had good records, while LA and NY failed. My take is that density in a disease-risk world demands *good* urban governance which you cannot assume
4
44
ps Don't go around quoting my <10% guesstimate as based on anything at all. I have zero idea how to actually estimate probabilities here. Too many variables in the mix. It's kinda like Drake's equation in the great filter. P(governance escape) = f(clusterfuck)
4
59
10 months later… yeah, this is still at 10%… vaccines seem capable of racing the virus, but people seem capable of throwing away the vaccine advantage
Quote Tweet
Scenario Z chugs on nature.com/articles/d4158
Show this thread
2
29
On the plus side, South Park special that aired today (thanksgiving 2021) plays scenario z for laughs quite well
1
17
BA2. Looks like scenario z refuses to exit the scenario set.
Quote Tweet
Study: Evidence of major differences between Omicron BA.2 and BA.1: BA.2 has 1. Higher R 1.4X (growing around the world) 2. More vaccine evading 3. Resistant to BA.1 induced immunity. 4. Higher severity (pathogenicity): More rapid and more extensive lung damage in hamsters 1/
Show this thread
Image
Replying to
Fascinating how people are willing to ignore/deny plausible scenarios because no-solution-exists is not a condition people used to high agency can deal with. It’s an extreme version of solution aversion (bias where people deny problems because they don’t like solutions on offer)
3
27
This is still like a 10% scenario for me. A scenario z world is survivable for the majority but not accepting it means you’ll be deranged about it.
1
4
Earlier I did a side quote thread on optimistic sub-scenario that omicron marked the end as a natural-vaccine wave. Sounds like that’s… not true.
Quote Tweet
If omicron has a natural vaccine on effect, there’s a chance we’re getting off the Scenario Z path and might be actually done by summer. If it turns out future deadlier breakthrough variants blow past omicron natural immunity, we’re not done. $64m question: which is it? twitter.com/vgr/status/135…
Show this thread
1
8
Looks like we continue a sort of slow walk down the Scenario Z road, except afaict we’ve kinda given up.
Quote Tweet
BA.5 has the most transmissibility and immune escape of any version of the virus since the pandemic began. Although its spike(S) sequence is nearly the same as BA.4, there are several mutations in other parts of the virus that may account for its⬆️fitness outbreak.info
Image
1
12
More on new omicrons
Quote Tweet
For the science & epi of BA.5, I encourage you to read @EricTopol’s terrific @SubstackInc review. erictopol.substack.com/p/the-ba5-story We’ve now gotten used to Omicron sub-variants – each about 20% more infectious than the prior one – and so it’s easy to be lulled into thinking… (2/25)
Show this thread
4
Replying to
Another thing I had to be reminded of was that each major wave came from a variant that wasn't dominant in the prior wave Omicron is quite striking in this regard
Quote Tweet
These viruses are visible on @nextstrain as "21K (Omicron)" shown here in red (nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/af). They do not descend from previously identified "variant" viruses and instead their closest evolutionary connection is to mid-2020 viruses. 3/16
Show this thread
Image
1
Replying to
The trouble with your Scenario Z is that you're assuming only one Covid season / Yr. That assumption is not adequately supported.