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There’s a kind of block-ergodic effect associated with mortality. Even if the 100 options are independent and doable in any order, doing *any* 30 precludes doing the other 70.
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In year 0 all options are 70% underwater temporally. In year 1, 99 options are 69/99 underwater. In year 29, 71 options are 70/71 underwater
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