Discussing buying the Meta dip with a friend and realized the case for buying is to cover the political compass. If youâve been long FB, you either believe enough in Metaâs pole position (cf Quest2) on VR to double down or believe itâs cringe vaporware enough to dump entirely đ€
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That 2x2 is from a Feb 2019 post. When I made it I hadnât heard of Peter Thielâs âAI is communist, crypto is libertarianâ line. I think I still stand by my alt political map. GOFAI is communist but modern ML is more auth-right.
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My framework for thinking about this: Amazon was 8 years old in 2002 when it started thinking about AWS and 12y old when S3/EC2 launched in 2006.
FB was 10 years old when it acquired Oculus in 2014, and 15y old in 2019 when Quest launched.
Itâs time for a bet the farm bet, no?
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Slower evolution of the bet-the-farm bet but then VR is a much harder technology to master and scale than cloud imo.
Either way, if your horizon is >3-4 y, the specific reason for the dip (Apple stealing the ad game) is kinda noise.
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Iâm also taking cues from Steve Yeggeâs platform rant. Amazon, Meta, Microsoft are platform models. Long term youâre betting on the platform vision. If this had been Google, Iâd be less inclined to bet. The Google+ moment showed they such at platforms.
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Also, FBâs *failure* to do Libra is good data. They canât do crypto, so theyâre not in lower right of political market.
If this works, it will probably look like Microsoft turnaround under satya I think đ€đ€
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In related news, seriously considering unwinding Google. They seem set to fumble their AI lead, and seem to be out of ideas. Google products havenât inspired in a long time, and as a small biz owner the move to drop the free G Suite tier feels like writing on the wall.
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If they have to harvest the millions of small business accounts theyâve served for free for a decade, and drop the ones who canât afford to pay ($6/user/mo), itâs hard to believe theyâll come up with a killer AI or quantum computing business model.
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