Conversation

Discussing buying the Meta dip with a friend and realized the case for buying is to cover the political compass. If you’ve been long FB, you either believe enough in Meta’s pole position (cf Quest2) on VR to double down or believe it’s cringe vaporware enough to dump entirely 🤔
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That 2x2 is from a Feb 2019 post. When I made it I hadn’t heard of Peter Thiel’s “AI is communist, crypto is libertarian” line. I think I still stand by my alt political map. GOFAI is communist but modern ML is more auth-right.
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My framework for thinking about this: Amazon was 8 years old in 2002 when it started thinking about AWS and 12y old when S3/EC2 launched in 2006. FB was 10 years old when it acquired Oculus in 2014, and 15y old in 2019 when Quest launched. It’s time for a bet the farm bet, no?
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Slower evolution of the bet-the-farm bet but then VR is a much harder technology to master and scale than cloud imo. Either way, if your horizon is >3-4 y, the specific reason for the dip (Apple stealing the ad game) is kinda noise.
Anyhow, I bought some more $FB. Still a small play-money-scale position, but I plan to hodl till metaverse or bust. This is definitely not investment advice 😆
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Also, FB’s *failure* to do Libra is good data. They can’t do crypto, so they’re not in lower right of political market. If this works, it will probably look like Microsoft turnaround under satya I think 🤔🤔
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In related news, seriously considering unwinding Google. They seem set to fumble their AI lead, and seem to be out of ideas. Google products haven’t inspired in a long time, and as a small biz owner the move to drop the free G Suite tier feels like writing on the wall.
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If they have to harvest the millions of small business accounts they’ve served for free for a decade, and drop the ones who can’t afford to pay ($6/user/mo), it’s hard to believe they’ll come up with a killer AI or quantum computing business model.
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