What if we’re seeing a new kind of inflation… neither supply shock nor expanded money supply (though both are going on) but a pricing in of NPV of discounted future volatility. A generalized carrying cost for inefficient late-mile fat.
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Hard to square with “more money chasing fewer goods” view, but you can think in terms of an “aggregate scarcity” concept similar to “aggregate supply” — there will be fewer goods in the future even if you don’t know how the shortfall will be distributed across aggregate supply.
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Dampening aggregate supply with generalized stressors like Covid/climate/China tensions is similar to boosting aggregate demand perhaps.
Even as I say this it sounds trivial enough I suspect it’s already part of the looser definition of inflation.
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