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10x difference in vax/unvax hospitalization rates appears to continue to be true for omicron? Even if mortality rate is low due to omicron being milder, I’m guessing hospitalization rate implies more long Covid and other issues?
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I’m getting some “oh yeah, but what about December?” No official federal data yet (ugh). But here is Washington State. More than 10x… More than 10x… This would be the most boring story in the world, if it weren’t for America’s persistently idiotic campaign to deny it.
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This is turning into one of the great natural experiments of our time. Including an experiment in limits to persuasion on the persuader side. It’s clear most vaxxers have given up trying to persuade even friends/family.
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We’re also seeing a cousin to preference falsification emerge I think… behavior falsification: getting vaccinated on the DL to avoid losing face or something.
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If omicron has a natural vaccine on effect, there’s a chance we’re getting off the Scenario Z path and might be actually done by summer. If it turns out future deadlier breakthrough variants blow past omicron natural immunity, we’re not done. $64m question: which is it?
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Scenario Z: Covid is never brought under control, mutates too much every season to be managed like the flu, and goes endemic with higher base fatality rate and is too costly to chase with vaccines. Joins the top-3 ranks of steady modern killers alongside heart disease and cancer.
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So 4 medium-term scenarios (10y) are based on how well vaccines and mild-variant-immunity work against future severe variants. 1. Both work well, yay. We’re done. Back to normal. 2. Vaccines work well, natural poorly 3. Vaccines work poorly, natural well 4. Both work poorly
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