Need high density for climate change, low density for disease resistance. High globalization for economic growth and standard of living, loa globalization for climate and disease management. Running into some pretty tough trade offs here.
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We’ve lost 2-3 macro degrees of systemic freedom in the last 6 years and not gained on other fronts. Depopulation is the natural way the imbalance might correct itself. That means continuing on current course of world being increasingly ungoverned and ungovernable for decades.
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After Black Death, ungovernable state and depopulation lasted almost 200y. It is not a given that the world is necessarily governable simply because we prefer it. Governance escape is possible just as immune escape is.
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Right now I’d assess Scenario Z at <10%. But last year when this started it wasn’t even in my scenario set.
Scenario Z isn’t post-Covid. It’s the scenario where we never actually get to post-Covid. Just declare victory and give up, shrinking governance to a feasible set.
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I hope all the people arguing coronaviruses mutate less etc are right. But sadly the risk of Scenario Z is broader — limits of politics and economics in a world that is vastly more high-tech than the minds of its median inhabitants, facing a microbial environment ratchet.
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Don’t forget, human civilization has spent 6000 years in a infectious-disease-ravaged state and only 60 in an infectious-disease-dominating state. 1% of history. No fundamental reason to believe the state change is an irreversible level-up with backsliding being impossible.
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Again, not being alarmist. This is still a <10% scenario for me. But I’m concerned people who know better aren’t openly worrying enough about the new mutations, taking news from Manaus seriously, etc. This thing is close to escaping control just as we’re congratulating ourselves.
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In a way, Trumpist death cult has already bought into Scenario Z. They seem to have decided this is a desirable cull of weakness out of the species along the way to their restoration of a glorious pre-modern condition of Real Men™ wielding guns, germs and steel for glory of god.
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Several people are pointing out that the correlation between density and disease management is not straightforward. Taiwan and SF have had good records, while LA and NY failed. My take is that density in a disease-risk world demands *good* urban governance which you cannot assume
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ps Don't go around quoting my <10% guesstimate as based on anything at all. I have zero idea how to actually estimate probabilities here. Too many variables in the mix. It's kinda like Drake's equation in the great filter. P(governance escape) = f(clusterfuck)
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10 months later… yeah, this is still at 10%… vaccines seem capable of racing the virus, but people seem capable of throwing away the vaccine advantage
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Scenario Z chugs on nature.com/articles/d4158
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On the plus side, South Park special that aired today (thanksgiving 2021) plays scenario z for laughs quite well
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Omicron
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BA2. Looks like scenario z refuses to exit the scenario set.
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Study: Evidence of major differences between Omicron BA.2 and BA.1:
BA.2 has
1. Higher R 1.4X (growing around the world)
2. More vaccine evading
3. Resistant to BA.1 induced immunity.
4. Higher severity (pathogenicity): More rapid and more extensive lung damage in hamsters
1/
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Fascinating how people are willing to ignore/deny plausible scenarios because no-solution-exists is not a condition people used to high agency can deal with. It’s an extreme version of solution aversion (bias where people deny problems because they don’t like solutions on offer)
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This is still like a 10% scenario for me. A scenario z world is survivable for the majority but not accepting it means you’ll be deranged about it.
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I like this as a mental model for a scenario z world. How would you drive in a world where a quarter of population routinely drives drunk and can’t be policed? Not drive Friday/Saturday nights I guess.
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Earlier I did a side quote thread on optimistic sub-scenario that omicron marked the end as a natural-vaccine wave. Sounds like that’s… not true.
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If omicron has a natural vaccine on effect, there’s a chance we’re getting off the Scenario Z path and might be actually done by summer. If it turns out future deadlier breakthrough variants blow past omicron natural immunity, we’re not done. $64m question: which is it? twitter.com/vgr/status/135…
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Looks like we continue a sort of slow walk down the Scenario Z road, except afaict we’ve kinda given up.
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BA.5 has the most transmissibility and immune escape of any version of the virus since the pandemic began. Although its spike(S) sequence is nearly the same as BA.4, there are several mutations in other parts of the virus that may account for its
fitness outbreak.info
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More on new omicrons
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For the science & epi of BA.5, I encourage you to read @EricTopol’s terrific @SubstackInc review. erictopol.substack.com/p/the-ba5-story
We’ve now gotten used to Omicron sub-variants – each about 20% more infectious than the prior one – and so it’s easy to be lulled into thinking… (2/25)
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