Conversation

Beginning to agree with critics of net zero especially for far-out dates like 2060. It’s just an invitation to hack the path. Any path from a 100-0 cliff in the next year or 100-0 in the last possible year, 2059, becomes nominally legit. Vast difference in are under curve.
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All physically realistic decarbonization curves will probably look like logistic functions of varying slopes. Most states/corps will choose to do slow now/fast later. We want most to do fast now/slow later. Carbon pricing type incentives should go from high early to low late.
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Make carbon $500/ton today, falling off to $5/ton (in 2021 dollars) by 2050 and there’s a chance it I’ll be meaningful and effective. Won’t happen, but the idea is to incentivize early aggressive shifts.
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Recently learned to my surprise that were actually ahead of Paris schedule at least on energy decarbonization, due to a mix of organic market forces and I guess one time transient Covid effect. If that continues in a sustained way, maybe these theatrical commitments won’t matter.
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Caution: The "one time transient Covid effect" is best not repeated, implyng the "we are ahead of Paris" new might be an example of cherry-picking.
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