Beginning to agree with critics of net zero especially for far-out dates like 2060. It’s just an invitation to hack the path. Any path from a 100-0 cliff in the next year or 100-0 in the last possible year, 2059, becomes nominally legit. Vast difference in are under curve.
Conversation
All physically realistic decarbonization curves will probably look like logistic functions of varying slopes. Most states/corps will choose to do slow now/fast later. We want most to do fast now/slow later. Carbon pricing type incentives should go from high early to low late.
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Make carbon $500/ton today, falling off to $5/ton (in 2021 dollars) by 2050 and there’s a chance it I’ll be meaningful and effective. Won’t happen, but the idea is to incentivize early aggressive shifts.
Recently learned to my surprise that were actually ahead of Paris schedule at least on energy decarbonization, due to a mix of organic market forces and I guess one time transient Covid effect. If that continues in a sustained way, maybe these theatrical commitments won’t matter.
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