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This might be a characteristic of the medium. It’s really hard to do small experiments. I mean you can’t buy a tiny fraction of a domain name. It’s 0/1. And that has… consequences.
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I *want* to stay on the tech+culture side of Web3 and ignore the speculative frenzy, but it’s tough. You may not be interested in DeFi, but DeFi is interested in you. The 800lb DeFi gorilla black hole is the King Kong of bored apes.
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Yes, this is almost certainly true. Carlota Perez installation phase going on. Overbuilding of capacity, crash, then everything comes true in deployment phase, 10 years later than the frenzy people thought.
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Replying to @vgr
I think this bubble will be similar to dot com: the market will very much get ahead of itself, but the long-term thesis is correct. Take advantage of the current ride, get out when it’s absolutely insane, then stay interested during the bear market for long-term investments.
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If you need help, talk to someone 40+ in tech. I haven’t seen a scene like this since 2000, when I joined a Web1 startup briefly, mere months before the dot com crash. Hedging is not hard. What’s hard is taking the downside scenario seriously enough at the peak.
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Anyhoo. I now have some 101 experience of every major user-side piece of the Web3 puzzle except DAOs 👀. Gotta pace myself. Been neglecting non-Web3 stuff for 10 days. I think I’ll budget 15% of bandwidth to this through 2022. Regardless of boom or bust.
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I suspect the really interesting building will begin after next crash. Without the dot com bust we wouldn’t have clouds or YouTube. Both based on overbuilt capacity. Don’t think in terms of asset prices but measures like number of skilled programmers or piles of firesale GPUs.
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Ok, calling it a night. The Foundation auction got triggered btw, and there’s a couple of bids in. 14h before the Ribbonfarm Map gets sold for the first time. And tomorrow we dive into DAOland via a token race 😵‍💫
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Okay, next experiment, I have now minted and listed my first serious NFT on Foundation. The Ribbonfarm Map of 2016, split with @GraceWitherell. Once the first bid rolls in, a 24-hour auction will begin. foundation.app/@vgr/~/106332
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Nightcap: big diff between 2017 boom and Web3 is: that was 100% speculative frenzy airgapped from trad economy. There was no user side to it. Only trading and coding sides. This time there’s a technological space to explore as a *user*, and a tenuous but real link to trad economy
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