This is conveniently 1 in 7, so you could say if you were doing scenario planning, you should think in terms of 1 in 7 futures being based on collapse of state power perhaps...
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What got me thinking about this is rise of retail crypto in India. India is already the world's biggest retail gold sink since it has historically been a place where people basically saved in gold. I think retail crypto in India is basically a natural extension of gold jewelry.
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Weird when something looks like utopian exuberance from one angle (crypto valued in fiat is a boom, largest random wealth transfer in history) and utter ruin and collapse from the other side (fiat valued in crypto = dollar has collapsed to 1/600,000th of its value since 2009.
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This is not generally true of a boom, even one in a fundamental factor of production. If there's a real estate boom, it is not meaningful to say "dollars valued in terms of land is collapsing in value"
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Okay, that was an ill-posed question due to gold standard effect. So allowing for a decade of structural adjustment, how often since say 1981 has gold been more than 13.7% of world market cap? 🤔
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Replying to @vgr
It was like 100% as recently as 1971!
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I'm less comfortable with this more vague estimate of world dollar-denominated wealth, since PPP distortionary effects get more marked. But the principle is sound. twitter.com/max_arbitrage/
This Tweet is unavailable.
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Basically, I'm trying to get at the answer to the question: how seriously should the value of crypto be taken as a signal of impending civilizational collapse?
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Replying to
Doesn’t this question conflate dollar-denominated securities with all of civilization?
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But wait, crypto can be purchased in repressive regimes where buying gold or $US could be restricted. I think a lot of crypto trading is folks getting around capital export controls. This is probably the single largest societal crypto benefit over actual gold.
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high risk to do so though, unless you're technically savvy enough to hide the capital flight activity without relying on middlemen



