I have non-trivial stakes in 2 of the 3 (web3 and AI) and trying to develop one in the third (metaverse). The one I was personally most interested in a few years ago (IoT —> AVs —> robotics) is the runt of this litter. I first flagged the set in 2017
Conversation
Reason I mention stakes, which I rarely do, is that true believers are exhausting. They think anything short of 100% enthusiastic belief is techlash-grade commie hostility. If upside scenarios don’t pan out I’ll lose more than most. That’s cause to be more rigorous, not less.
2
1
23
This is partly why I tend to actively work on the quietest active fronts, and stay largely passively invested on the more frenzied ones. Right now the quietest active front is robotics. There’s a ton of interesting things happening but fortunately no crazed true believer crowd.
2
27
In a way robotics doesn’t belong in this cohort. It’s the equivalent of mobile for web1/2. Once web3, metaverse, and AI get to a point of development, the iPhone of robots will become possible. In the meantime, enjoy Boston dynamics dancing robots and early IoT/internet-of-shit.
1
2
24
The cost and performance on batteries, motors, sensors (esp vision), hydraulics is almost there. What’s missing is robot-social-media (web3), better brains (low-cost ML hardware), and environment (metaverse… robots will live in suitable VR+AR simultaneously)
1
13
Btw I think “metaverse” is here to stay, much as kids might ridicule it as boomerverse. The terminology of AR/VR/XR/MR was floundering because the device level is the wrong level for visioning. Metaverse is “smartphone” grade cringe, not “info superhighway” grade cringe.
3
23
I suspect it will come together in the way streaming did, not as a frontier but in a way where incumbents ally with high-value back-catalog owners to create properties. Linden labs approach relied too much on created content. Extending movie and gaming universes will be easier.
1
1
11
I think the equivalent of website will be “ride”
As in the initial metaverse will look like an Internet of digitized theme parks. twitter.com/hondanhon/stat
This Tweet is unavailable.
4
1
18
I think metaverse narrowly viewed as a Facebook idea is vaporware, likely with some cynical calculations attached, but industry wide (include Microsoft, Nvidia, Disney, gaming studios) there’s a there there. I’d point to Pokémon Go as the genesis event.
3
16
The biggest difference between this tech wave and the last few is the radically darker societal context. On a scale of -10 to 10 of broader pessimism to optimism:
PC: 4
Web: 8
Mobile+cloud: 6
Web3+AI+Metaverse: -4
Covid+climate+culture war+inequality = nasty global environment
2
5
35
Replying to
Luddite-Tech
Whiplash-Tech
Blowback-Tech
Nego-Tech
Hell-Tech
Yellow-Springs Tech
Cave-Tech
Gloom-Tech
Limbo-Tech
Ebola-Tech
Sanguin-Tech
Vacuumed Tech
Empty-Tech
Void-Tech
Loser-Tech
Soulless-Tech
Gollum-Tech
Corpse-Tech
Apocalypse-Tech
End-Tech
1








