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My own first real use of non-speculative use of crypto ideas is probably this encrypted prediction about a tv show. Verifiable predictions are like “seeing around the corners of time.”
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Just for fun, I’m going to try predicting the plot turns of the show, but without spoiling it for people. Here is the SHA-256 hash of my first prediction. Will reveal when either verified or falsified 851606c989ff0da8fe3f3ede3861d8a012469dbb67e82391825eb3e511e69f86
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If you combine 3 elements 1. Encrypted predictions (like mine above) 2. Immutable public feed (twitter approximates this, blockchains exactly embody it but are harder to use) 3. Immutable revelation commitment (I don’t know how to do this) You have something that seems big
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“Smart contract” is a misleading term. Iirc Vitalik recently tweeted that he wished he’d called it something else. It obscures this more basic potential for creating temporal lines of sight. If making auditable predictions were as routine as sat comms, how would the world change?
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I think “digital money” has been a big distraction the way “human space colonies” has been for space economics so far (though that may change if SpaceX actually delivers on $10 to LEO). It’s impressive the way Apollo was impressive. Men on the moon! Then nothing for 50 years.
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The speculative non-fiat store-of-value angle is legit, ie enabling digital goldbuggery, but I don’t think there’s an economic-foundations future beyond that in transactions, unit of account etc. The big idea lies elsewhere.
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To avoid overindexing on space, another interesting precedent is nuclear weapons. Specifically their ability to credibly create doomsday level threats, which induces a whole new way of doing geopolitics. Dr. Strangelove stuff. In particular credible deterrence theory.
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Yeah this time lock stuff. Has it been implemented yet in a consumer-grade metamask-accessed thing?
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Replying to @vgr
For #3, think time lock encryption (gwern.net/Self-decryptin) or Verifiable Delay Functions (VDFs) (vdfresearch.org). I would also point out that, although the coiners didn't invent it, the space has been a massive boon to Zero Knowledge proof theory and implementation.
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