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Like literally space economy relies on two arbitrary technical facts: an equilateral triangle can circumscribe a circle, and geostationary orbits exist. Result: we can see around the corners of our world.
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For crypto one arbitrary technical fact is likely “you can make passwords that nobody can help you recover or reset if you lose them” Which sounds like a liability mostly but isn’t. Or to restate “anyone can now effectively destroy their digital information unilaterally.”
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“Line of sight” is a weird thing. It’s an intangible concept but with very specific, tangible, and physical implications unlike “decentralization” which is more a metaphor. What are other things like it? Eg: 1/2/3 point perspective which revolutionized art in the Renaissance.
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All the terms used to characterize crypto tech potential are frustratingly abstract. Like trust/trustless. That’s a couple of abstraction levels above line of sight.The corresponding LoS level concept is something like “private key” probably. Or “immutability”
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Another fundamental property angle I like is “crypto is computing that can measure time.” The killer app of web3 probably dies something fundamental with time the way satellites do with (the geometry of) space. Seeing around the corners of time perhaps?
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Good line of thought. But the numbers feel not radical enough. Containerization took the world from like 50% port costs in time/money to single digits. You need that kind of impact.
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Replying to @dschorno and @vgr
or like escrow costs are 1-2% of all real estate sales. Lots of little areas like this that don't sound flashy until you actually add up what that boils down to. How much does it currently cost to do insurance payouts in uncomplicated cases? etc
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My own first real use of non-speculative use of crypto ideas is probably this encrypted prediction about a tv show. Verifiable predictions are like “seeing around the corners of time.”
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Just for fun, I’m going to try predicting the plot turns of the show, but without spoiling it for people. Here is the SHA-256 hash of my first prediction. Will reveal when either verified or falsified 851606c989ff0da8fe3f3ede3861d8a012469dbb67e82391825eb3e511e69f86
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If you combine 3 elements 1. Encrypted predictions (like mine above) 2. Immutable public feed (twitter approximates this, blockchains exactly embody it but are harder to use) 3. Immutable revelation commitment (I don’t know how to do this) You have something that seems big
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This is intriguing. One issue as formulated here is that it is subject to variants on the time-tested scam of sending 1024 letters to random participants, half predicting the stock market will go up, half down. 7 more iterations and you have 8 people who think you're psychic.
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Ah, in my version the attack would create 1024 identities to make the 1024 predictions. Making identities is as cheap as making a key pair, after all.
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Yeah isn’t that what Sybil attacks also do? Create lots of fake identities to game voting based systems? Here, the mitigation would be that your reputation as a seer rests on *one* identity making many good predictions.
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