Might have to start paying attention again. Kinda tuned out of crypto in this last cycle. Got too complicated for me, but maybe time to out in the effort now.
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A lazy way to track biz-tech cycles
- Ben Evans as a radar to shortlist top trends
- Chris Dixon to grok main dynamics once they’re legible
- Track with Stratechery once it starts actually working
- Switch to Matt Levine when things inevitably go south
What, why, how, how-not
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Between stages 3 and 4, the philosophizing of the also-rans who made money but not history is useful triangulation on the peak mythologizing. There’s also an extended dead zone between the Stratechery and Levine stages when there’s a lot of techlash noise but no useful insight.
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The reason it’s a dead zone is you need some real visibility into the mechanics of late-stage grifts before a Levine style tear down is possible, but the signs are available to be wildly misread by axe-grinders of all kinds a few years earlier.
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This is only for SV tech, not all tech
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> Track with Stratechery once it starts actually working
I think it's also important to question for whom it's working.
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Doesn’t really matter for my purposes. If it’s working for anybody at all it’s a thing to pay attention to and understand.
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When it comes to web3 Ben and Chris disagree strongly that one of them blocks the other
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