Might have to start paying attention again. Kinda tuned out of crypto in this last cycle. Got too complicated for me, but maybe time to out in the effort now.
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Replying to
A lazy way to track biz-tech cycles
- Ben Evans as a radar to shortlist top trends
- Chris Dixon to grok main dynamics once they’re legible
- Track with Stratechery once it starts actually working
- Switch to Matt Levine when things inevitably go south
What, why, how, how-not
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Between stages 3 and 4, the philosophizing of the also-rans who made money but not history is useful triangulation on the peak mythologizing. There’s also an extended dead zone between the Stratechery and Levine stages when there’s a lot of techlash noise but no useful insight.
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The reason it’s a dead zone is you need some real visibility into the mechanics of late-stage grifts before a Levine style tear down is possible, but the signs are available to be wildly misread by axe-grinders of all kinds a few years earlier.
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This is only for SV tech, not all tech
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Replying to
I'm not really seeing it. We're going 12 years into cryptocurrencies and I don't see use cases materializing. Even if they exist, the grift is far too big.
Ultimately all the "ownership" stuff only materializes if code is law, and code makes for very crappy law.
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Replying to
web2 was aggregating demand while commoditizing supply. web3 sounds like undoing the commoditization by decentralizing supply. But how does that affect the demand side exp in terms of convenience (ease of discovery, one stop shop), wide selection, lower price( scale effects)?
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