The new normal seems exactly like the old normal except everything good is delayed, costs more, and involves more paperwork, and everything bad is accelerated and less containable by paperwork or money. And no deep lessons have been learned.
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Realized this suddenly last month and it’s been bumming me out since.
We’ve learned a bunch of narrow and contentious facts about pandemics, but no consciousness-raising things. Everybody’s decided events prove they were right about everything all along.
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It’s really rare for humanity to learn anything from big events. We mostly just collect a lot of data for future scholars to analyze after it’s too late
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A big historic event is like a very hurried package tour on an airport layover in a foreign city. Grab a souvenir, take a bunch of photos, maybe review them later if you get around to it.
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This is probably what 1945 felt like in Europe. Things continued to get worse before they got better. And it was also not obvious then how well things were going to turn out. Savage Continent by Keith Lowe covers this period excellently…
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Perhaps smaller polities have a better chance of learning something, eg about the value of honest clear communication and what kinds of moral appeals work.
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It's very easy to be cynical - it makes you look world wise and smart. This attitude has meant I've missed a lot of opportunities out of excess pessimism. Reality: the world changes constantly, a smart and ambitious person takes advantage. Opportunities exist in change.
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Feels like the learning happened, it just wasn’t evenly distributed. Additional selection pressure will reveal who learned.






