I do think humanoid form factors will be important for exactly the reason Asimov predicted: laboring alongside humans in built environments already designed for the form factor. Critical especially in elder care, nursing etc.
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A basic problem with getting to deep learning is that in control theoretic terms, deep learning is feedforward control, not feedback. The heavy lift is offline training, and the online inference step is only “feedback” in a very limited way, barely more than a lookup table.
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Here, even the simplest maneuvers would have 1-2 parameters that would need to be filled in with reference to live video. Eg, a “jump” modeled as a parabolic arc is 3 parameters to lock down using a stereo inage. Not like picking the next word in a language model.
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So, heavier, more expressive inference steps in online feedback part of solution means more compute. Which will be available in the next few years. Theoretical advances also needed, for more expressive quantified “languages” with stricter “grammars”
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Btw when I say non-defensible, I mean against a reasonably funded competitor. Like an American startup with ~30m in funding or a Chinese state lab, and 2 years time. 90% of that would be software and production scaling costs. In 10y hobbyists will be beating these.
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Never lose sight of the fact that imitation costs ~70% what innovation dies, with much lower risk if failure, and that sector pioneers usually end up with ~7% of a market once it’s mature. See Oded Shenker book, Copycats.
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For a pioneer, maintaining a 1-2 year lead and a corresponding margin premium is the only way to stay in the game, since they usually won’t win the volumes. The factors that make them good at pioneering will make them bad at volumes. Hence the moat importance. I hope BD find one.
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One possible moat is in social networking the robots into intelligent multiagent swarms. Not marching in parades or flash mobs. Remember beauty = symmetry = low info = no moat). More like a team of say 50 robots peer-learning a work environment and forming a work-mesh in it.
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Like say a robotic wildfire fighting fire department. A handful of experienced humans leading a hundred robots. Stop using poorly paid prison inmates without better options. Owning the swarm-level software orchestration capability = you’re the next Google.
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For a start.
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