Conversation

How climate action will actually happen: 25% state regulatory pressures, 30% unilateral corporate action that initially lags, then leads state action, once it is clear how to “compete on climate,” and 5% consumer/citizen behavior change. Remaining 40% will not actually get done.
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State action will be initiated by left-wing administrations that will be loudly protested by right-wing oppositions that will, however, quietly *not* dismantle them when they next get power. Kinda like how China hostility was initiated by the right but is being quietly continued.
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Corporate programs will start out as regulatory hacks to exploit incentives but get real once consumer Overton window shifts enough and anti-greenwashing literacy goes up enough. This is already happening but unevenly.
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Consumers: 80% will be on spectrum from hostile/skeptical to apathy, to distrust of institutions asking for behaviors, to dumb greenwashing (plastic straw and organic cotton tote brigade). So the 5% impact will come from 20% of individuals.
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This is my best case scenario informed by Covid response. The worst case is if a resistance faction pops up that’s both genuinely skeptical, smart enough to work actively against efforts instead of just not helping, and backed by a cynical enough power (eg Big Coal or Russia)
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The effect of the 40% shortfall will be, as with Covid, measurable in deaths and emergency response economic costs. I’m assuming a dollar not spent on action now equals $10-$100 spent on mitigation later. This is typical of most engineering.
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Long-term my measure of impact is percent of earth that becomes newly unlivable at any reasonable cost, and average increase in cost of habitation of the rest. Think “Sahara and Antarctica grow, HVAC cost and extreme weatherproofing cost goes up in what’s left”
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It’s a moving target as more things slip from prevention to mitigation to adaptation buckets. But it’s also a morphing gun as capabilities go in/out of play. For eg I think nuclear is now effectively dead in the water no matter how desirable it might be in your desired roadmap.
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