#2 most highly voted post of 2020 on lesswrong predicted 4th covid wave to happen in March-May 2021 and was literally called "Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over"
has the mistake ever been acknowledged?
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twitter.com/BasilHalperin/
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Yes, the fact that this did not occur has been noted extensively, over many other Covid posts.
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Made a general decision that I don't go back and put updates on the weekly posts, and corrections are in future posts instead. I can see this one wanting to be an exception due to its visibility, but also I presume everyone reading knows it didn't happen.
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Yeah… I’d make that exception. Would be a nice bit of public service to acknowledge a consequential wrong prediction and point to the revised views to show how it’s done.
Agreed here, always good to see examples of people doing this well
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OK, added an analysis of what happened at the bottom of the post. I gave a 70% chance in the post that scenario would happen, and in hindsight should not have been that high.
Key model errors were I had Alpha at +65% infectious instead of +40%, and I had vaccinations slower.
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