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Replying to and
Made a general decision that I don't go back and put updates on the weekly posts, and corrections are in future posts instead. I can see this one wanting to be an exception due to its visibility, but also I presume everyone reading knows it didn't happen.
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Replying to and
OK, added an analysis of what happened at the bottom of the post. I gave a 70% chance in the post that scenario would happen, and in hindsight should not have been that high. Key model errors were I had Alpha at +65% infectious instead of +40%, and I had vaccinations slower.
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