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Replying to
My planning scenario: we've already effectively signed up for some significant transient climate change >1.5, to let significant populations die (10x covid toll at least), and take on a tech-stack transformation to unknown-unknown state equivalent to terraforming.
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This is a max-likelihood prediction/bet. Not a desired scenario. I try not to waste time on wishful thinking about how the consciousness of 7 billion people might get transformed fast enough to open up weird options. In the time-frame of relevance, people aren't going to "change"
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So things are going to get acutely bad for a couple of decades (think perma-Covid x 3), starting in the late 2020s/early 2030s probably, completely restructuring civilization. So working with shallow layers like politics and corporations is sort of irrelevant.
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I don't think it's a doomsday scenario, but it's definitely severe rewriting of civilizational firmware, with only 2-3 comparables in history. Bronze Age collapse maybe.
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There's probably a non-zero chance (notionally ~1% chance) of catastrophic changes that destroy all life or something (like those shellfish that got cooked alive in PNW in current heatwave), but those are probably not super survivable except by bottleneck populations.
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I’m not wasting time thinking about those 1% Noah’s ark scenarios even though they’re the most fun as stories. Its the boring mild-to-medium catastrophe scenarios that are in the likelihood band worth prepping for.
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Replying to
Two comments. 1) everything that doesn’t hit foot supply is just an inconvenience. 2) populations have to move to stay alive in most scenarios. That’s the real issue: can we move hundreds of millions of people to cooler climates, or must they die in place? A policy issue.
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Replying to
I haven't made up my mind on that question, but yeah, mass migrations is definitely one of the scenarios within the broad class I'm taking seriously. And to answer the question: I don't think we can. Half of all who try to move will die trying. At least.
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Well, now you understand my life’s work petty clearly: housing, infrastructure, cooling systems, travel equipment, asset tracking, digital IDs. To walk entire populations to permanent resettlement in SEZs with zero tariff exports to the G20: Singapore/Hong Kong model free zones.
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Replying to
Your thing has always been clear. I don’t agree with all of it necessarily but it’s definitely in my “disagree but commit” zone. If hexayurts save the world, I’ll be there cheering 😄
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I did not realize your climate doomerism was so fully formed before :-) It may be a band aid on a gunshot wound. But it might also be a tampon. If we can stop the climate migrants dying by and large it makes the whole process so much less genocidal; political benefits are large.
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