This is how well the *best* line of defense does.
“A second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine boosted protection against Delta to 60% (compared to 66% against Alpha), while two doses of Pfizer’s jab were 88% effective (compared to 93% against Alpha).” nature.com/articles/d4158
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I wrote this thread in January when we were just 👀 alpha. People love doomsday scenarios… this is one of my most QTed threads. But a bunch of people then complained I was being too alarmist even for a subjective <10% worst case speculation.
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Scenario Z: Covid is never brought under control, mutates too much every season to be managed like the flu, and goes endemic with higher base fatality rate and is too costly to chase with vaccines. Joins the top-3 ranks of steady modern killers alongside heart disease and cancer.
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science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/37 Towards a universal coronavirus vaccine.



