Here I’m a conservative. I think they’ll stay the same, with some reform, and online ed will falter. People forget universities are among the most stable, robust institutions around. They’ve survived falls of empires. The online-ed enthusiasm is misplaced.
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Huh. Never heard “I’m conservative” to mean “I predict little change” before. Usually it’s “I WANT little change.”
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Whatever happened to the Baghdad House of Wisdom?
Oh, right, the 1258 Seige of Bagdhad. [I did have to check]. Beware of Mongol hordes demanding gifts, I guess. Still, ~500 years is a pretty good run.
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Current model is financially unsustainable. Elite unis will be fine, & probably CC/state, but many will have to adapt or die.
Digital will play a large part in disruption.
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Online ed has not yet duplicated probably the two key things traditional EDU delivers: a unique, immersive experience, closely connected with others doing it too, and, social transformation and networking.
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Agree universities are very lindy. They seem to outlast most human institutions - longer lasting than countries - but it doesn’t follow that online-ed is not huge. Semi related - YouTube is consistently underrated in its impact on skills learning.
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Reform will be an increase of online courses not offered by the degree granting institutions that students are enrolled in. This will hit GE hardest consolidating the humanities in a Amazon like hive organized by Canvas (LMS) after it gets purchased by Google or Amazon.









