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Feels like a Guns, Germs, and Steel type argument but for modernity. Environmental determinism. I think there’s some of that, but also a strong element of tech path dependence (“flywheel”) at country scale a la Joel Mokyr, which also unfolded in other places at other times.
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💯 I am highlighting the Geo part here, which was vastly predominant over History. Now Tech takes over, my big hypothesis is that faster and faster. On tech flywheel, though, tech diffusion is so much faster now that it might not account for much difference
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Yes, agreed. That's what I meant. Same thing happened in China and India, with obvious synergies across them. GGS etc. If you haven't read it my favorite book about all these topics from the last 5y is Nonzero from Robert Wright, Highly recommended
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My hypothesis on the topic is that both countries are very much the same, with some very illustrative ≠ Himalayas ➡️ massive barrier + massive rivers These rivers add sediments & tend to flood (summer snowpacks melting)➡️ good for fertile land, but destroys accumulated wealth
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And kills millions every time. Also not easily navigable because of the sediments and treacherous waters. Lots of water + fertile land, but no navigability ➡️ lots of population, but not trade ➡️ lots of poor ppl
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Big differences: In China, the Yangtse and Yellow rivers both flow to the same Han-controlled basin, making centralization a given. All in the same latitude ➡️ easy to unify and control
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In India, the Indus and Ganges flow in different basins, which creates naturally 2 different powers (true in history, true to this day). Also more North-South, so what works in the North doesn't work in the South (so Tamil areas much harder to unify w/ the rest historically
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So you end up in both countries with masses of poor ppl, in one place more unified (China) in the other more divided (India). All of this less geographically convenient vs. Europe, so more runaway tech dev there in the crucial 1500-onwards
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Heh interesting hypothesis. Feels like a bit of an overfit though. Perhaps I’m too close to the India-China comparison to see it clearly, but I actually don’t see them as particularly close. No closer to each other than to Europe or Persia or Ancient Egypt.
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Civilizations are perhaps simply too big as useful comparison units. That’s why I prefer time periods within their history. Like 1500 Florence ~= 1800s Scotland ~= 1890s Connecticut Valley ~= 1990s Silicon Valley. All have a useful “Renaissance” structure.
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