I’d put the probability of a significant conventional war in SE Asia in the next decade at >50%. The Chinese muscle flexing has gotten both more aggressive and open in the last 5 years.
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This is going to be the weirdest conflict in world history
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You are underselling Russia. Russia has energy (which could bypass a US Naval blockade of China) & better high-end (ie jet engines) weapons designers. If China hopes to challenge US hegemony in an open kinetic confrontation they will have to coordinate their actions with Russia.

