I’d put the probability of a significant conventional war in SE Asia in the next decade at >50%. The Chinese muscle flexing has gotten both more aggressive and open in the last 5 years.
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Hong Kong moved faster than I expected. The response to global pressure re Xinjiang was interestingly “deep” as in co-opting the population through media control etc. And where Russia only has ransomware, China can hold the global supply chain directly ransom at least briefly.
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