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Wrongness has two dimensions: reversibility (self-explanatory) and depth. Deep wrong is like walking off a roof thinking there’s solid ground below. Shallow wrong is like thinking New York is the capital of the US. It may or may not cascade into deep/irreversible.
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Wrongness wealth budget varies by activity. I’m like 3-6 months rich on consulting activities (survival economics is least forgiving), 2-3 years rich on writing activities, 4-5 years on friends/family interpersonal relationships (the most forgiving)
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Billionaires can be like 10-20 years deeply wrong about everything. It means they have a tiny chance of doing things nobody else can risk, but a very high chance of disappearing past their own “deep and irreversibly wrong” event horizon unless they take mitigation measures.
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