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In a way, Trumpist death cult has already bought into Scenario Z. They seem to have decided this is a desirable cull of weakness out of the species along the way to their restoration of a glorious pre-modern condition of Real Men™ wielding guns, germs and steel for glory of god.
Several people are pointing out that the correlation between density and disease management is not straightforward. Taiwan and SF have had good records, while LA and NY failed. My take is that density in a disease-risk world demands *good* urban governance which you cannot assume
ps Don't go around quoting my <10% guesstimate as based on anything at all. I have zero idea how to actually estimate probabilities here. Too many variables in the mix. It's kinda like Drake's equation in the great filter. P(governance escape) = f(clusterfuck)
okay but surely cities would quickly self-select for good urban governance no?
Not necessarily. All cities generally failing and a systemic retreat from urban culture is not impossible.
There’s a combination of good governance and actual will to be governed. I think the failure in LA was on will to be governed, where SF had both in place
This is correct. There is a character (values, attitudes and lifestyles) to cities. Although, I think NYC eventually changed late summer and that might be a permanent phenomena.
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