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Well this blew up. Apparently nobody official has bothered to spell out the worst case even if low probability? Noble lies will be the death of us. One interesting idea that came out of it for me is ‘governance escape’ which is a different concept in my head than collapse.
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Scenario Z: Covid is never brought under control, mutates too much every season to be managed like the flu, and goes endemic with higher base fatality rate and is too costly to chase with vaccines. Joins the top-3 ranks of steady modern killers alongside heart disease and cancer.
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The problem is solvable in the same sense that traffic congestion is solvable - it is not solvable by our particular political system. What happens then is a loss of legitimacy of our political system as the success at solving the problem in Asia becomes impossible to deny.