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Well this blew up. Apparently nobody official has bothered to spell out the worst case even if low probability? Noble lies will be the death of us. One interesting idea that came out of it for me is ‘governance escape’ which is a different concept in my head than collapse.
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Scenario Z: Covid is never brought under control, mutates too much every season to be managed like the flu, and goes endemic with higher base fatality rate and is too costly to chase with vaccines. Joins the top-3 ranks of steady modern killers alongside heart disease and cancer.
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Isn’t every country that is trapped in a COVID mitigation cycle (rejecting suppression because of cultural factors and leadership failure) already suffering from ‘governance escape’?
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Yet another doomsday scenario where I can't escape exercising every morning. Why can't cake trigger antibodies? Why are smoothies not vaccines? Why is more bedtime never a solution for anyone besides Arianna Huffington & Harvey Weinstein?
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I read Cohen's Big Stick (2015). Amt of Trump damage much huger than we realize. But: marks threat of "edge areas" as emerging: Horn of Africa, ISIS "caliphate,"etc. Governance escape. Thought: is interior of US a failed state/edge area? Not Somalia, but everything's relative.