This would be truly unprecedented. Infectious disease hasn’t dominated human affairs for decades. It differs from longevity driven modernity diseases in being more random and less governable.
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We’ve lost 2-3 macro degrees of systemic freedom in the last 6 years and not gained on other fronts. Depopulation is the natural way the imbalance might correct itself. That means continuing on current course of world being increasingly ungoverned and ungovernable for decades.
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After Black Death, ungovernable state and depopulation lasted almost 200y. It is not a given that the world is necessarily governable simply because we prefer it. Governance escape is possible just as immune escape is.
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Right now I’d assess Scenario Z at <10%. But last year when this started it wasn’t even in my scenario set. Scenario Z isn’t post-Covid. It’s the scenario where we never actually get to post-Covid. Just declare victory and give up, shrinking governance to a feasible set.
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I hope all the people arguing coronaviruses mutate less etc are right. But sadly the risk of Scenario Z is broader — limits of politics and economics in a world that is vastly more high-tech than the minds of its median inhabitants, facing a microbial environment ratchet.
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Don’t forget, human civilization has spent 6000 years in a infectious-disease-ravaged state and only 60 in an infectious-disease-dominating state. 1% of history. No fundamental reason to believe the state change is an irreversible level-up with backsliding being impossible.
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Again, not being alarmist. This is still a <10% scenario for me. But I’m concerned people who know better aren’t openly worrying enough about the new mutations, taking news from Manaus seriously, etc. This thing is close to escaping control just as we’re congratulating ourselves.
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In a way, Trumpist death cult has already bought into Scenario Z. They seem to have decided this is a desirable cull of weakness out of the species along the way to their restoration of a glorious pre-modern condition of Real Men™ wielding guns, germs and steel for glory of god.
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Several people are pointing out that the correlation between density and disease management is not straightforward. Taiwan and SF have had good records, while LA and NY failed. My take is that density in a disease-risk world demands *good* urban governance which you cannot assume
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ps Don't go around quoting my <10% guesstimate as based on anything at all. I have zero idea how to actually estimate probabilities here. Too many variables in the mix. It's kinda like Drake's equation in the great filter. P(governance escape) = f(clusterfuck)
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End of conversation
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Where do you get this 200 yr of ungovernable state post-Black Death? It was immediately followed by the Renaissance, plus an economic boom. Meanwhile what did happen 200 yr later? Reformation followed by Wars of Religion, which in some regions was as bad as Black Death.
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