Every now and then someone asks me if I regret being 'wrong' on Tesla, because... the share price went up 🤦♂️.
But the real answer on Tesla is that it's still far too early to know. So, what would a falsifiable 'right or wrong' Tesla test be? 1/
Conversation
A proposal:
Tesla has to get (say) half of global unit share (bonus if a top 5 OEM exits the market), and it has to sell commercial volumes of a car with NO manual controls years before any competitor.
That's what being 'right' or 'wrong' on the real Tesla questions would mean
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General Motors peaked at just about half the share of vehicles and has less than 20% now. Is 50% for Tesla a fair test? I think 10% of all light vehicles sold makes sense. Not clear if share of EV is meaningful if EV isn’t “most” light vehicles.
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I’d probably go by a SaaSy metric like share of passenger miles. The EV future is on-demand rental based rather than ownership I think.


