This is the “do nothing, just wait” play that many actors in time-favored positions are too impatient to run. People often credit China with running it well on a geopolitical scale.
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A question I like to ask is: if nobody does anything differently in a short-term-stable situation, who gets stronger and who gets weaker over the long-term? Ie who benefits or loses from the status quo persisting? Good question to ask about the US right now.
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I can’t see any trends here more detailed than slow demographic advantage accruing to Hispanic population. It would be nice to spot micro trends like in banking sector, tech, specific swing states etc. Politics, economics, culture...
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The US feels like there’s a lot of energy in fault-lines about to slip, so time-advantaged trends may suddenly accelerate with a jerk, via tipping point-effects. This seems more likely than any coherent attempts at changing equilibriums succeeding anywhere.
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Culture war equivalent of BATNA
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Politics don’t affect people’s lives very much. It only affects emotions of those who think about it. On an everyday scale, it doesn’t do much, so this context feels strange.
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Those who provide disturbances at the eigenvectors
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The "least fit" to the status quo are most ready to benefit from the coming shift.https://twitter.com/mreliwjones/status/1058380331928207361?s=20 …
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