probably not
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Are any of the models right?
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Makes sense only if M2 money flows into market as bank loans. I'm not so sure about that.
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I thought that’s exactly how it enters... on the balance sheets of top banks?
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No, not apples to apples comp in numerator, denominator, can’t really compare them like that.
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Nope. Can’t just compare two vastly different monetary policy regimes across time (federal funds rate and interbank money markets vs QE , YCC and market support programs and a repo / market based money market). Replace the money supply with collateral supply and take another look
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Also, it should make you skeptical when they have 150 years of data and only show you 1/3rd of it
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Proper fiat money is not 150 years old though, only about 70
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Probably not but there's a kernel of useful insight in it
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No, the two numbers are not unrelated, but they cannot be meaningfully compared the way he is doing it. You definitely couldn't say "one is up x% and the other is up y%, therefore...". The chart itself shows that such conclusions will often be proven wrong.
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Of course, this is not a strict mathematical relationship. I’m just doing it as an indicative one. Money has multiple places to go, with stock markets being one the primary destinations.
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