Venkatesh Rao

Yeah but China tensions will change incentives quite a bit I think.

If we wake up... There aren't a lot of big robotics companies here actually, more Europe / Japan. Perhaps self-driving and tech in general could change that. I think we have a big advantage to press, but we'll see if it's possible to get it done.

I suspect reshoring and automation = PB&J. The more China automates, the more the only reason to manufacture there is about dirty energy. Renewables change that. I am betting energy-intensive commodities and intermediates stay in China, light energy finishing robot-reshored.

And service robotics in last mile and distribution is going to be much bigger than manufacturing. Consumerization of robotics.

Yea totally, but I'm saying that there aren't many big robotics companies here to lobby for these gov't measures. I suspect it'll be more organic, but I hope I'm wrong.

Yeah I agree. I think there’s a cost inflection point coming, like 2000 for software startups. Cost of robotics startups should plummet, as some of the AI gets dirt cheap and hardware gets commodity/open-source. Trigger is renewables plus falling lithium-ion costs.

Why is the trigger renewables and not the AI?

I think a lot of the push will come from green. Same tasks at lower, greener energy cost. Delivery, distribution, simple service. Human operators run on carbon-based energy. AI is more near-zero-marginal-cost enabler after initial training costs. Training = capex. Energy = opex.