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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 20
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      Replying to @vgr

      I assume not really pro-robot. I bet labor probably still is a blocker and in general tech isn't popular.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 20
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      Replying to @NickPinkston

      Yeah but China tensions will change incentives quite a bit I think.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 20
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      Replying to @vgr

      If we wake up... There aren't a lot of big robotics companies here actually, more Europe / Japan. Perhaps self-driving and tech in general could change that. I think we have a big advantage to press, but we'll see if it's possible to get it done.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 20
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      Replying to @NickPinkston

      I suspect reshoring and automation = PB&J. The more China automates, the more the only reason to manufacture there is about dirty energy. Renewables change that. I am betting energy-intensive commodities and intermediates stay in China, light energy finishing robot-reshored.

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 20
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      Replying to @vgr @NickPinkston

      And service robotics in last mile and distribution is going to be much bigger than manufacturing. Consumerization of robotics.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 20
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      Replying to @vgr

      Yea totally, but I'm saying that there aren't many big robotics companies here to lobby for these gov't measures. I suspect it'll be more organic, but I hope I'm wrong.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 20
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      Replying to @NickPinkston

      Yeah I agree. I think there’s a cost inflection point coming, like 2000 for software startups. Cost of robotics startups should plummet, as some of the AI gets dirt cheap and hardware gets commodity/open-source. Trigger is renewables plus falling lithium-ion costs.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 20
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      Replying to @vgr

      Why is the trigger renewables and not the AI?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 20
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      Replying to @NickPinkston

      I think a lot of the push will come from green. Same tasks at lower, greener energy cost. Delivery, distribution, simple service. Human operators run on carbon-based energy. AI is more near-zero-marginal-cost enabler after initial training costs. Training = capex. Energy = opex.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 20
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      Replying to @vgr

      Electric power is already cheaper than caloric power though, so while power density has real practical implications, I don't think electric costs are much of a real barrier. Brains are harder than muscles (not to say robot hardware is solved, far from it)

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 20
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      Replying to @NickPinkston

      Point of use price is not the same as production price. Non-grid-rechargeable batteries are like orders of magnitude higher per watt and still sell briskly. They’re like photographic film in ~2000. I think of “electrify everything at pennies/kWh” as an unfinished 120y old project

      10:02 PM - 20 Jan 2021
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        1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 20
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          Replying to @vgr @NickPinkston

          AI is still the hard problem, but not the asymptotic unit economics driver IMO.

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        1. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 20
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          Replying to @vgr

          Numbers don't seem to work though. Maintenance / ops is generally way more than power cost in true robotics (ie not high power machine tools) if we're talking unit cost. This is true of CapEx and OpEx.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 20
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          Replying to @NickPinkston

          I think reliability is going to increase very rapidly

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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