I have no idea how far we'll get. Certainly if we actually make it to Mars, far more talented people than me will have to get involved. I'm pretty much just futzing around with 3d printing toys and learning to control motors with arduinos. Hardly a space program.
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We tend to be afraid of long-term involvement commitments because we tend to think they need to be heavily overspecified up front. But a 10 year involvement commitment does not involve a 10 year *plan.* All it implies is picking a direction you'll be muddling-through towards.
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The "plan" for a good marriage is basically "stay involved." The plan for being a successful parent is "stay an involved parent for 18 years." There are no milestones and detailed gantt charts.
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In fact, the main thing to commit to is a negative, to NOT steer. Because once you develop momentum staying directionally stable is not about doing stuff. Throwing away the steering wheel. I wrote a narrow version of this argument in blog posthttps://www.ribbonfarm.com/2017/11/09/ceos-dont-steer/ …
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It's a milder version of "burning bridges." Once you decide you're going to "stay involved" in something, there's a certain stability of mutual expectations for everyone who makes that decision. You start thinking in indefinitely iterated prisoner's dilemma mode.
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Throwing away the steering wheel, setting long-range involvement horizons... it doesn't guarantee that n an ESS (evolutionarily stable strategy) like tit-for-tat will emerge, but it opens up the possibility that one will https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionarily_stable_strategy …
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