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Axe-grinder here, hi It’s not that crackpots are “almost always” right But on “almost every” topic, *some* crackpot is right-er than institutions Crackpot truth high watermark always higher+faster than inst For best results, survey crackpots for best, not institutions for avg
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The conclusion to draw from 4 years of post-truth is that the crackpots are occasionally right, people with axes to grind overstate the ‘occasionally’ into ‘almost always’ and people who insist too hard that experts should suffer no loss of trust are likely habitual Noble Liars
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This is a fairly weak claim. About as strong as the law of large numbers. Like how somebody will guess the lottery numbers right. If you can’t a priori identify the one right-er crackpot, you’re basically saying nothing.
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The skill of identified the right crackpot is real and can be practiced: * Look at the actual numbers * Consider incentives of info sources * See who makes bets, has skin in the game * Have friends whose epistemology you trust * Read LessWrong
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I should probably explain what I mean when I say things like "rationalists and some internet forums were right on COVID when experts were wrong". I don't mean that rationality makes you better at epidemiology that epidemiologists. twitter.com/vidur_kapur/st…
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