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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 5
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      I’ll expect a small market crash in Q1. With senate control, and possible confirmations for Bernie-left people in key the red-scare bears will be out in force.

      5 replies 1 retweet 39 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 5
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      Replying to @vgr

      Buy some options to lock that trade in :D

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 5
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      Replying to @NickPinkston

      I’m not smart enough to figure that out

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 5
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      Replying to @vgr

      LOL it's more guts than brains

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 5
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      Replying to @NickPinkston

      Yeah I lack those too

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 5
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      Replying to @vgr

      It's good to know yourself! Betting make you nervous or what?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 5
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      Replying to @NickPinkston

      Options do. I pretty much only do long positions.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 5
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      Replying to @vgr

      Yea, selling unhedged puts or something can be risky, but calls can only go to zero - though of course you don't do it to preserve principle.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 5
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      Replying to @NickPinkston @vgr

      I've been a big fan of prediction markets. Seems like there's enough inefficiency to still make them easily profitable. I keep finding like +10-15% short-term bets and winning all of them (beyond stat. significance)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 5
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      Replying to @NickPinkston @vgr

      I've heard that Trumpists are to blame because they're playing with the heart not their brain, and their hearts are in Cult 45.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 5
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      Replying to @NickPinkston

      Yeah I read that article

      9:49 PM - 5 Jan 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Nick Pinkston  🌐‏ @NickPinkston Jan 5
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          Replying to @vgr

          It won't last, but interesting. I hope that Augur or something gets huge so we can predict more interesting things. I think PredictIt should have PredictIt uptime futures. It would've helped signal their previous election night outage.

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