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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. mikeelias.com  💡 📈‏ @harmonylion1 Jan 4
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      mikeelias.com  💡 📈 Retweeted Venkatesh Rao

      Axe-grinder here, hi It’s not that crackpots are “almost always” right But on “almost every” topic, *some* crackpot is right-er than institutions Crackpot truth high watermark always higher+faster than inst For best results, survey crackpots for best, not institutions for avghttps://twitter.com/vgr/status/1346324137409581057 …

      mikeelias.com  💡 📈 added,

      Venkatesh Rao @vgr
      The conclusion to draw from 4 years of post-truth is that the crackpots are occasionally right, people with axes to grind overstate the ‘occasionally’ into ‘almost always’ and people who insist too hard that experts should suffer no loss of trust are likely habitual Noble Liars
      Show this thread
      3 replies 2 retweets 80 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 4
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      Replying to @harmonylion1

      This is a fairly weak claim. About as strong as the law of large numbers. Like how somebody will guess the lottery numbers right. If you can’t a priori identify the one right-er crackpot, you’re basically saying nothing.

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. mikeelias.com  💡 📈‏ @harmonylion1 Jan 4
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      Replying to @vgr

      mikeelias.com  💡 📈 Retweeted mikeelias.com  💡 📈

      If.https://twitter.com/harmonylion1/status/1230625868206104577 …

      mikeelias.com  💡 📈 added,

      mikeelias.com  💡 📈 @harmonylion1
      Replying to @startupdaemon
      List of conspiracy narratives that will become narratives in the next 6 months: - China lied about numbers - It came from the bioweapons research lab - It’s mutating - WHO and global media complicit in coverup
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 4
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      Replying to @harmonylion1

      My point exactly. That’s just your guess from 2/20 that appears prescient in hindsight. But there was no way to tell *then* that you were the crackpot to back. The thing about institutions is that they give you a priori cause for greater trust via their average better hit rate.

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. mikeelias.com  💡 📈‏ @harmonylion1 Jan 4
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      Replying to @vgr

      In theory, greater hit rates are good But it seems like whatever accuracy institutions accumulate on is literally “spent” on big lies at important moments Iraq War Epstein didn’t kill himself COVID “Russiagate” etc Literally every important thing utterly wrong

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 4
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      Replying to @harmonylion1

      Now you just sound randomly conspiratorial. Institutions aren’t monolithic actors. You can still pick up a random paper from Nature and follow the argument and decide how much to trust it. You just can’t do that for random red-strong Twitter thread of vague accusations.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 4
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      Replying to @vgr @harmonylion1

      Some people get some important things wrong, sometimes on purpose. That’s it. If you throw away everything on the strength of that, you’re left with nothing but a pile of red string.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 4
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      Replying to @vgr @harmonylion1

      You’re using Twitter, which is a service resting on dozens of technical standards tediously worked out by expert committees etc. Running on equipment much of which is the result of tedious institutional work. Yes, Epstein didn’t kill himself. No, you’re not vaulting things right.

      10:34 PM - 4 Jan 2021
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        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 4
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          Replying to @vgr @harmonylion1

          The point is, when institutions work right, they do so in boring and quiet ways it is easy to take for granted and radically undervalue. The result is the boring 99% of civilization.

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 4
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          Replying to @vgr @harmonylion1

          What’s happened is that you’ve decided big failures are what you’re going to judge institutions on. People who think that way end up wanting to burn everything down and then complain when their lives fall apart saying, “well I didn’t mean burn THAT down, that’s obviously good”

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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