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My point exactly. That’s just your guess from 2/20 that appears prescient in hindsight. But there was no way to tell *then* that you were the crackpot to back. The thing about institutions is that they give you a priori cause for greater trust via their average better hit rate.
“But there was no way to tell *then* that you were the crackpot to back”
seems circular
1) If institutions don’t back you, you’re a crackpot and probably wrong
2) If you’re meaningfully right, there was no way to tell because institutions didn’t back you
In theory, greater hit rates are good But it seems like whatever accuracy institutions accumulate on is literally “spent” on big lies at important moments Iraq War Epstein didn’t kill himself COVID “Russiagate” etc Literally every important thing utterly wrong
Now you just sound randomly conspiratorial. Institutions aren’t monolithic actors. You can still pick up a random paper from Nature and follow the argument and decide how much to trust it. You just can’t do that for random red-strong Twitter thread of vague accusations.
I claim a naive observer usually can tell which of a given crackpot and the relevant institutions are correct, if they're willing to stow deference and just use their brain when institutions are wrong/lying, they tend to show certain diagnostic signs
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