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Axe-grinder here, hi It’s not that crackpots are “almost always” right But on “almost every” topic, *some* crackpot is right-er than institutions Crackpot truth high watermark always higher+faster than inst For best results, survey crackpots for best, not institutions for avghttps://twitter.com/vgr/status/1346324137409581057 …
This is a fairly weak claim. About as strong as the law of large numbers. Like how somebody will guess the lottery numbers right. If you can’t a priori identify the one right-er crackpot, you’re basically saying nothing.
My point exactly. That’s just your guess from 2/20 that appears prescient in hindsight. But there was no way to tell *then* that you were the crackpot to back. The thing about institutions is that they give you a priori cause for greater trust via their average better hit rate.
The skill of identified the right crackpot is real and can be practiced: * Look at the actual numbers * Consider incentives of info sources * See who makes bets, has skin in the game * Have friends whose epistemology you trust * Read LessWronghttps://twitter.com/yashkaf/status/1336032400174964736 …
Damn you guys never stop with the proselytizing 
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