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That is not my evidentiary standard here. Circumstantial evidence is enough to entertain the hypothesis seriously and not dismiss it outright as crackpottery. Especially because China had the means, motive, and opportunity to cover up an accident.
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Your evidentiary standard must also accommodate an answer to why we have not, in the entirety of the past year, heard much about such a theory from the microbiologists and geneticists working in that particular field, who are doubtlessly much better equipped to entertain it.
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