So, pharma ∩ capitalism ∩ consulting appears to be in the news today.
Projecting forward, which “business model” is the Covid vaccine going to end up monetized with?
Update: https://twitter.com/carolynkor/status/1335979301259382785?s=21… offers stats that roughly half of Americans don’t see themselves taking the vaccine. Even if it’s free! My point is this: many think of vaccines as something that happens to other people. Even if it’s free they may not afford a day off work, etc.
I've a feature story on coronavirus vaccines out in @newyorker mag today and online yesterday. I'm endlessly thankful for the scientists, many that appear here, who've been working nonstop since January to get us out of this hellscape. Thanks for reading!
https://newyorker.com/magazine/2020/12/14/countdown-to-a-coronavirus-vaccine…
The kinds of technologists who read this thread see the vaccine as a simple solution — everybody takes it, we eradicate the virus, problem solved, life returns to normal. But you and I also take, say, OS upgrades for granted. Sober reality: think of the vaccine as an IE6 problem.
If public health messaging can’t even get a critical mass of people to wear masks, how can one expect it to convince a critical mass of people to take a day off work to get vaccinated? Especially if lawsuits argue that free compulsory vaccination is not a good use of tax dollars.
Just look at the number of people walking around with severely cracked screens on their phones. “I can still use it,” they say. “It’s $100 and four hours I don’t need to spend.”
Many will make the same decision with respect to the vaccine.
I know I probably seem like I oscillate between coronavirus concern and dismissal. Where I'm actually coming from is a place of deep frustration, because some of the highest costs of a blunt response fall on those for whom it is not, statistically, a particularly deadly illness
Why on earth would young, healthy people vaccinate themselves against COVID-19? @FDRLSThttps://thefederalist.com/2020/12/07/science-says-im-in-the-back-of-the-covid-vaccine-line-but-government-and-corporations-will-force-me-through-it/…
Plenty of people will say confidently: I haven’t caught it yet, which means I won’t catch it in future; even if I do, the death rate is miniscule; I’ll probably be asymptomatic anyway; and as for long Covid, I don’t know anyone in that situation; it won’t happen to me. No thanks.
Where risk-estimation is concerned, Covid seems to trigger the perfect storm of human cognitive fallacies; on top of that, there’s the evolutionary fitness demonstration drive at work:
(who’s probably bored of the whole thing as trivial) would say, easy 2x2: those who want it but can’t afford it, and those who can afford it but don’t want it, will probably massively outnumber those who want it and can afford it.
Why is it trivial? Seems like a real problem to me. But also I think the anti-vaccine extremists are a minority and most will get it if seriously inconvenienced by repeated shutdowns etc
What if demagogues can convince enough people that repeated shutdowns are just due to government overreach and oppression, and the vaccine is just as much of a hoax as the virus?
I mean trivial in the sense that the American response to the vaccine is predictable: I’m expecting approximately 30–50% uptake, well short of what’s needed for herd immunity; well into 2021, Covid docs and nurses will continue to burn out as unvaccinated patients keep arriving.