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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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      Healthcare, unlike say transportation, is *irreducibly* collective due to the existence of pandemic threats. There is no meaningful debate like there is between private cars vs public transit. A market fundamentalist who does not recognize this is signing up for death-by-market.

      2 replies 1 retweet 30 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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      You could argue that energy can become irreducibly collective if climate change progresses enough, but healthcare is already there. Healthcare has to be minimally collectivized at a level I suspect private insurance alone cannot achieve.

      2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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      So back to nation-state competitiveness... if nations compete on healthcare, and are forced by nature to do it in a collectivized way over the objections of screaming red-scare types as the bodies pile up... how do they pay for it? What's the tax base in this world?

      2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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      If wealth and income gravitate to the wealthy and middle classes, linked to employment or work for MNCs, income and corporate taxability become as mobile as capital itself. Countries were already trying to fence in capital, and will get way more aggressive in the future.

      1 reply 2 retweets 10 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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      Both human and capital mobility will go down in the future, but I suspect capital mobility will go down more. Covid has created a small, tight window of opportunity where the corporate world is in bad trouble and needs state bailouts across the board.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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      For a few years, the corporate world is basically like a public utility. Especially things like airlines. I expect countries to move aggressively to maintain ability to generate tax revenue. This even affects solopreneur internet commerce (tried selling courses in Europe?)

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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      This will succeed to only a moderate level since the imperative to make a profit and operate in the best markets precedes tax opportunities. Overall, I think governments will never fully dig out of the Covid hole, especially federal levels worldwide.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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      My suspicion is that city-states will get stronger in their ability to create captive tax-revenue streams from a low base, while nations will weaken from a high base. And healthcare will increasingly get linked to cities.

      3 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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      Already the best hospitals are in cities... where collective health threats are also highest. You can temporarily flee cities for the countryside, but the diseases will eventually reach you, but you'll have to go to the healthcare in the cities.

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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      So that's the future. Nations competing for tax revenue ultimately linked to multinationals driving tech progress, and using it to compete with each other on healthcare for aging populations... while US and oil decline from a peak and divergence rules and cities rise > nations

      2 replies 6 retweets 18 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Dhruv Bansal

      I'm not sure how crypto will play frankly. At the moment it seems like some mix of nations and corps will be able to control it.https://twitter.com/dhruvbansal/status/1333497900748431362 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Dhruv Bansal @dhruvbansal
      Replying to @vgr
      I know I'm a guy with a hammer, but #Bitcoin is going to have a big role to play in this narrative. The no-one-controls money and anyone-can-join global energy/hashrate market are a big part of (1) & (2). Also we're at/near all-time-highs today, which is incidental, but nice :)
      11:48 AM - 30 Nov 2020
      • 6 Likes
      • moncholo internet Rahul Ramchandani - Alex Schleber 👽😷 Death will not release you Adolf Richter Brill 🐮
      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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          Footnote: things that are probably over-rated analytically and probably have no big part to play in the future: 1. UBI 2. Georgism/LVT 3. Anarchism of any flavor 4. Fully decentralized anything 5. "Post-capitalism"

          6 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
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        2. Dhruv Bansal‏ @dhruvbansal Nov 30
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          Replying to @vgr

          That bitcoin can't be so-controlled is an (easy-to-support) hypothesis, but not a known historical fact. I remain optimistic!

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Nov 30
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          Replying to @dhruvbansal

          well I'm hedged against both outcomes :D

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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