There are now fairly detailed reboot models and projections for various industries/organizations (for eg. airlines project full recovery only 2024, and have estimates for next few years). Interesting that there are no such models for individuals. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/200812-from-bad-to-worse-global-air-traffic-to-drop-60-70-in-2020-11610389 …
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4 years is a long time in an individual life. If something as basic as airline travel is going to be weird for 4 years, that's a weird "act" in an individual life. Especially say if you're 21 and haven't traveled much.
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For a business, "reboot" means a few things: deciding whether to even continue existing, renegotiating your relationship with your market, the state, and banks, reshaping/resizing your business model, looking for opportunities in the crisis... what does it mean for individuals?
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Individuals don't have "business models" but something like "life models." When I was 22 (1996-97) the world was a wide open, welcoming place, and it was natural to assume you'd be traveling, seeing the world, etc. Huge initial conditions for the rest of my life were set then.
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"Life model" decisions then included: going on a backpacking trip to Europe in 1998, buying a car, starting to write online... all that suffered a sharp, short, shock after 9/11. Global travel was no longer as much fun, my horizons shrank a bit to more domestic US travel.
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For the airline industry, 9/11 was a 15% revenue, 6 month deep shock, but after that it recovered almost entirely (though full recovery took a decade). This one is already 60-70% and 4 years expected for the steep part of the recovery. Life models are going to change for all.
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I need a personal Covid-reboot plan. Lots of my very practical life-model assumptions have changed/shifted
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The biggest life model change for me has been vacations. This is going to sound very privileged, but my life model was pretty much built around one proper vacation a year, a few weekend trips, and a few “soft” vacations aka business trips. That’s crazy broken.
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For many people the biggest break has been the weekday-weekends divide due to WFH. Or the school/home divide, but it’s been vacations for me. Funny thing is, in a way this whole year (and to a lesser extent, the last 4) has felt like a bad vacation at a crappy huge resort.
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The breaks are weird. One is pet care. We have an aging cat that needs a lot of care, but pet-sitting is kinda wrecked right now.
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