I don’t know how to feel about this
https://twitter.com/thatalicewu/status/1330287079708893184 …
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Don’t want to let Western leaders off the hook, especially not Trump or BoJo, but it really is a full civilization stack A/B test here. It’s not path-dependent.
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It’s easy to see with hindsight what tactics worked. It’s not at all clear why different sets of tactical options were available in different countries. And it’s not clear what price was paid over preceding decades to make those options available.
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I’ve had a couple of people die in my friends/family circle and that did get to me, but I’m not going to pretend I viscerally feel numbers at the 300k scale like some bodhisattva tuned in to mass suffering. At that level lines like “even one death is too many” is just posturing.
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I’m seeing the same tendency to jump to easy conclusions that we saw after 9/11. I think of this tweet often. It’s not regular derp it’s catastrophe retcon derp.https://twitter.com/gojomo/status/800828383990935552?s=21 …
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A lot of people have gotten a lot more certain about what they already believed. I’ve only gotten systematically more doubtful. This is too complex to be simple validation for anything. It might confirm/disconfirm isolated specific beliefs but not entire world views.
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If you’ve had an entire worldview get stronger, you’re probably not paying enough attention to things. The world did not get simpler in the last year. It got more complex.
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End of conversation
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To me, the outcome is some combination of: 1) Policy/governance 2) Luck 3) Geography/climate/density 4) Population characteristics (health, compliance). Taiwan good on all 4. US bad on all. Lots of people want to reduce it to 100% policy because it advances their agenda.
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